The last section outlined an economic development program that can help oligarchic societies progress faster and with less violence. However, it is unlikely that most of the world will immediately put it into action. Those countries whose traditional experience has been primarily with tribal and mixed aristocrat tribal society seem to have an especially difficult time making the transition to semi-stable oligarchic society, to say nothing of democratic market society.
Social inertia is a very powerful force. People tend to behave in the same way that their parents and grandparents behaved. In tribal societies most young men are expected to be warriors. In many areas with this kind of tradition, the majority of men carry weapons most of the time. There are inherited rivalries, feuds, and animosities that often lead to violence. A short review of the relevant historical data shows that these kinds of societies are unlikely to change from traditional culture to modern culture in one or two generations. They cannot be expected to just put away their weapons, start large numbers of successful corporations, and have everyone show up for work.
The change from traditional societies to modern, market economy society is not an event. It is a process. It happens over a long period of time. It takes at least one century and more often than not it has taken two centuries or longer. The data of how this change happened in Western Europe, the United States, and Japan is available in history books for everyone to read. It is not only a long process, it is a violent one.
Whether we like it or not, we can be sure that more violence is coming. Sometimes the most visible aspect of social change is chaos, confusion, anarchy, and random violence. Other times strong leaders have taken control and tried to manage the chaos by channeling the people’s anger toward some specific target. This target might be Jews, Westerners, capitalists, communists, foreigners, or any other group of people. This kind of behavior by revolutionary dictators and other strong leaders is a common occurrence in the first half of oligarchic society. If there is a problem of ethnic animosity, they may lead one group in battle against another. Or they may choose an external opponent and lead their people in war against them. If the people are excited, angry, and eager to fight, this is a way to channel the violence along a specific path rather than endure total chaos and anarchy.
Most Americans, urged on by the media, have come to believe that this kind of targeted violence is just plain evil. They thought that fascism and communism were evil, and that is what they believe about events in Iran, Iraq, Bosnia, Kosovo, Rwanda, Palestine, Afghanistan and many other trouble spots around the world. Since the United States is a democratic nation, when the people believe that something is the result of evil so does the government. The American government sometimes responds by sending its military to bomb the evilness into submission.
This policy of declaring troublesome oligarchic countries to be rogue states full of evil and sending bombers to punish them does not seem to be working very well. It occasionally has an impressive short-term effect where the troublemakers fall back in shock, but the long-term result of this kind of intervention is seldom peace and stability.
Americans may be thinking about the example of Germany, Italy, and Japan after World War II. These three countries caused a great deal of trouble. The United States, and others, fought a major war, defeated them, and they quickly settled down and became peaceful democratic market nations. More recent military interventions have not followed this pattern. What is the difference?
Germany, Italy, and Japan were already in the second half of their oligarch experience when World War II started. They had functioning economies, corporations, and jobs. They wanted to have empires because in the 1930s most large successful countries had empires. When the imperial age ended as a result of the war, they could settle down and become peaceful modern nations.
The rogue states that have been causing trouble in the last few decades are in a different situation. Most of them are in the first half of their oligarchic experience. They have not yet figured out how to organize a modern economy. They do not have successful companies, jobs, and incomes. Many people in these countries are still bewildered by the concept of modern development. When the United States calls them evil and attacks them for causing trouble, they do not understand what is happening. They do not think—we were wrong, we should settle down and become peaceful businessmen and employees. Instead, they get angry. They blame all of their troubles on the United States, which they believe is out to get them. Sometimes they start thinking about revenge.
Is there a better way to deal with these early-stage oligarchic society troublemakers rather than calling them evil and bombing them? To be honest, I do not know, but it seems like there should be. Here is an example that may illuminate this situation from a different point of view.
In the years from 1820 to 1850 the United States was an agricultural nation in the first half of its oligarchic development. Most of the people were farmers living well to the east of the Mississippi River. In the days before chemical fertilizer, land tended to lose its fertility after prolonged agricultural use. The country already had a lot of land, but the farmers were still “land hungry.” They cast greedy eyes on the frontier and the Indian lands, which they wanted for their own.
They invaded and seized Florida. They cleansed the Cherokee and Creek Indian nations from their land and took it for themselves. They annexed Texas and precipitated a war with Mexico during which they seized the present states of New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, Utah, and California. They threatened to go to war with Great Britain if they did not get the best part of the Oregon Territory. They cleansed the Indians from all of this land and made it their own.
During this period of extraordinary aggression, expansion, and ethnic cleansing, they held a large part of the population in slavery. They also used violence to cleanse the Mormon minority from Missouri and Illinois and force them to trek west to Utah.
This is the epitome of rogue state behavior. They seized more than a million square miles of land and attacked anyone who got in their way. They engaged in serial episodes of ethnic cleansing. They bought and sold slaves and beat them into submission.
Suppose that there was a group of advanced modern nations in existence at that time. Suppose that they were disgusted with the rogue behavior of the young United States. What kind of policy should they have used to solve this problem? Should they have called the Americans evil and bombed them as a punishment? If so, would this policy have been successful?
The golden rule says: “Do unto others as you would have others do unto you.” It is time for the United States to make use of the historical data that is available and try to find a better way to deal with problem countries in the first half of their oligarchic experience.
No comments:
Post a Comment